Study “The impact of the Russian war on Ukraine on Egyptian food system Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, North Africa office”-Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung عودة إلى الفرص

Terms of references for a study 

The impact of the Russian war on Ukraine on Egyptian food system

Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, North Africa office

1. Background

As Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of agricultural products to North African (NA) countries, the war might threaten the food security in several North African countries dependent on food import. In fact, if the NA region has managed to cover its needs in the short term, mainly by mobilizing budgetary resources, it will probably be confronted for the next years with a greater uncertainty for its external supplies. While grain shortages have been averted in a number of countries that were highly dependent on the Russian and Ukrainian markets (like Tunisia and Egypt) thanks to the availability of other net exporting countries (the European Union, Argentina and India), the medium- and long-term prospects created by the closure of the Russian and Ukrainian markets are questionable.  Will the wheat surpluses that will be generated in Europe (France and Germany for the most part) or in other regions of the world (the Americas, Australia or India) be able to make up for the shortcomings of the Ukrainian or Russian markets there is an extension of the conflict? Will the most food-vulnerable countries have the financial capacity to acquire the increasingly expensive foodstuffs and at the same time continue to support not only the domestic price of bread, but also the price of grain paid to local producers, and the sufficient allocation of fertilizers, besides austerity pressure imposed on state budget spending? Which urgent policies need to be implemented to secure access for all people in North Africa to food?

1. Object of the tender

With the aim to strengthen the resilience of NA countries through knowledge production for civil society actors and help to align agricultural policies accordingly in the future, RLS North Africa Office is seeking to contract researchers to conduct a study in the field of agriculture and food sovereignty in Egypt.

The study aim to analyze the impact of the war on access to food in Egypt, and provide previews of how the food and agriculture system should look like to ensure the right to food to everyone and the resilience of the agricultural system facing food crises. How is it possible and what kind of steps and strategies would be required to improve food sovereignty in Egypt? 

Taking into consideration different actors involved in the supply chain (farmers, consumers, private sector, official institutions, i.e. trade offices, ministries, etc.) the study aims at analyzing the impacts on farmers (the supply chain disturbance, the agri inputs price increases, etc.) the macroeconomic impact (i.e. balance of food management, inflation, etc.) and the households’ purchasing power impact as well. 

The study intend to use and to implement a specific questionnaire for Egyptian farmers, and to conduct interviews with different stakeholders to complete the qualitative analysis. 

In the light of the above analysis, recommendations will be made to tackle those impacts in the short and the long term.

General Objectives 

1. Generate information and socio-political-economic analysis of how the war in Ukraine has affected the Egyptian local farming and food systems. 
2. How food and farming system should look like to ensure food sovereignty? How is it possible and what kind of steps and strategies would be required to bring this change? 
3. Generate debate against hegemonic food system and provide a basic outline of a just and democratic agro-food system in the region. 

• Content wise  

This study aims to analyze:

• The agricultural model and policies that contribute to restructuring the agricultural systems in favor of the agri business and to the detriment of small farmers and real producer of local food
• The impact of this model on the deterioration of the agricultural system and the loss of its resilience in front of crises 
• The dependence of the Egyptian  farming system on international markets and the food relationship with Ukraine, Russia and other exporters
• The multi-crises faced by Egypt: the COVID-19, the drought, the war in Ukraine 
• Policies taken by the Egyptian government as immediate solutions to avoid a food crisis (short or long-term): How did the state deal with the food crisis in the context of rising prices and speculation in global markets? How the country manage to provide grain (strategy to import from other countries, budget for importing grain, fertilizers, and support for farmers, etc.)
• The impact of those policies on consumers
• The impact of those policies on farmers (proposed three main aspect: fertilizers, wheat and cattle feed) 

This study will also propose actions and policies to be implemented to insure food access to all social classes with:

• a critical analysis of current agricultural policies
• practical recommendations to ensure that future shocks and crises will be absorbed
• practical recommendations regarding the agricultural expenditures and budget
• How to achieve food sovereignty while dealing with austerity and hegemonic neoliberal policies

Methodology 

• Desk research – available papers, statistics and policies regarding the agricultural system in Egypt and its evolution. 
• Data analysis – i.e. data on evidence the Russian Ukraine war impact on the macroeconomic situation in Egypt, productivity, income, nutrition, and social impacts (as far as available) and the urgent programs on consumers and farmers etc.
• Field research – Interviews with different actors such as, government representatives, scientists, NGO, farmers/peasant organizations and affected people on the ground (where appropriate)  
• Policy recommendations

Target Groups

• Political decision makers especially in Egypt but also elsewhere
• Media, NGOs and other civil society organizations in the North African countries 
• Media, NGOs and other civil society organizations in the global North and South

Publishing date and scope of the final publication 

• Scope: Maximum 60 pages including references and index 
• Final Submission date: 15th of December 2022.

Proposal, Award and Tender submission deadline 

• The research task is designed for 30-35 working days for the lead researcher 
• The research task is designed for 15-20 working days for the “on field”-field research assistants (number of field research assistants will depend on the scope of the field research)

Necessary qualification: Proven experience in research on the above described topic

The order will be issued as a service/or honorarium contract and the proposed researcher should submit the following documents: 

• CV(s)/profile of the researcher(s)(1 lead researcher and field research assistants)
• time frame according to the timeline below 
• price references/honorariums by working day (including taxes)
• short proposal/ outline how the researcher is planning to conduct the research

Tenders must be submitted no later than September 25th, 2022

Tenders submitted after this date will not be accepted.

Tenders must be submitted to Procurement.NorthAfrica@rosalux.org , with the subject line: War impact Study – Egypt

*Incomplete applications will not be considered.

*Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.

Languages 

The study can be conducted in French, or Arabic or English. (Translations to other languages will be decided by RLS) 

Publishers

Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung and North African Network for Food Sovereignty

Timeline and deliverables

Contact

Imen Louati 

Program Manager Political Ecology | North Africa Regional Office

Address: 55 TER, Rue 1er Juin, Mutuelleville, 1082 Tunis 

imen.louati@rosalux.org | www.rosaluxna.org