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JOB ADVERTISMENT

TITLE:                      Senior Consultant in Economic Modeling

Duration of Assignment: Short-Term (Up to 21 days LOE)

Activity: Tunisia FIRST Project

Assignment: Training on macroeconomic forecasting for DGRE and FAU staff

Dates:  November 26, 2018 – December 26, 2018

1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

The purpose of the USAID/Fiscal Reform for a Strong Tunisia (FIRST) project is to provide technical assistance and capacity building to key Government of Tunisia (GoT) institutions, particularly the Ministry of Finance (MOF), to strengthen the fiscal foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth. FIRST will help the MOF develop the capacity to formulate sound, predictable, and fair revenue policies. It will also support the MOF in modernizing tax administration and enhancing its ability to effectively, efficiently, and transparently carry out its revenue collection mandate. Lastly, it will strategically assist the GoT to use targeted analysis to advance key policy reforms that enhance efficiencies in government administration, improve the targeting of social spending, and increase fiscal space for priority investment and service delivery.

2 POSITION BACKGROUND

Econometric modelling and forecasting have been become one of the most important tools for policy makers to analysis the economy and to evaluate the impacts of various policies on their economies and to forecast the future behavior of the economy.

The General Directorate of Resource and equilibrium (DGRE) and the FAU of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) requested that the Tunisia First Project lead the development of a High performance macro-economic forecasting model for integration into the MTFF. This model will be used as a key tool assessing the stance and medium-term sustainability of fiscal policy in Tunisia and to produce realistic and consistent forecasts for revenue and expenditure.

The development of the High performance macro-economic forecasting model implies that the MoF will produce a forecast of all relevant macroeconomic variables and a complete forecast of all government revenue and expenditure in a medium-term perspective. This requires a modelling technique with how to interpret the outcomes. In this context, the DGRE made a request that the Tunisia First Project organizes an Econometric modelling and forecasting training to strengthen macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills of DGRE and FAU stuff. The training should be very useful to facilitate the MoF work on preparation of medium-term macroeconomic framework (MTMF), medium term budget framework (MTFF), public finance management (PFM), investment programs (PIP), and on all other related macro and sectoral issues and strategies/policies affecting socio-economic development, macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability of Tunisia economy.

 3 POSITION DESCRIPTION

The purpose of the training is to offer DGRE and the FAU stuff an understanding of the econometric tools that apply to financial and macroeconomics data. The approach is from an applied perspective. The consultant will introduce specific financial and macroeconomic models and the techniques required to estimate/predict/forecast with the model. The training will make use of the econometric package, Eviews 10.0, for purposes of analyzing of the data.

lead the development of a High performance macro-economic forecasting model for integration into the MTFF. This model will be used as a key tool assessing the stance and medium-term sustainability of fiscal policy in Tunisia and to produce realistic and consistent forecasts for revenue and expenditure.

The development of the High performance macro-economic forecasting model implies that the MoF will produce a forecast of all relevant macroeconomic variables and a complete forecast of all government revenue and expenditure in a medium-term perspective. This requires a modelling technique with how to interpret the outcomes. In this context, the DGRE made a request that the Tunisia First Project organizes an Econometric modelling and forecasting training to strengthen macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills of DGRE and FAU stuff. The training should be very useful to facilitate the MoF work on preparation of medium-term macroeconomic framework (MTMF), medium term budget framework (MTFF), public finance management (PFM), investment programs (PIP), and on all other related macro and sectoral issues and strategies/policies affecting socio-economic development, macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability of Tunisia economy.

 4 POSITION DESCRIPTION

The purpose of the training is to offer DGRE and the FAU stuff an understanding of the econometric tools that apply to financial and macroeconomics data. The approach is from an applied perspective. The consultant will introduce specific financial and macroeconomic models and the techniques required to estimate/predict/forecast with the model. The training will make use of the econometric package, Eviews 10.0, for purposes of analyzing of the data.

Responsibilities 

The Tunisia FIRST Project (USAID) will support the DGRE and the FAU in this endeavor through the provision of a short-term technical local expert to conduct a practical training on Macro econometric Modeling, Forecasting and Analysis.

Activities

The short-term technical local expert will perform the following specific activities:

Strengthen macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills of DGRE and FAU;

Understand the elements of economic theory and econometrics that are needed to construct a macro econometric model;

Building different macroeconomic model using practical examples.

Deliverables

Training the staff of the DGRE and the FAU in macro-economic forecasting using the Eviews software,

An essential review of the Advanced macroeconomic time series forecasting techniques;

Practical training sessions on development an economic model: setting up a model and generating forecasts and simulations;

Discussion on IMF-type model.

5 LEVEL OF EFFORT

The LOE for this activity is up to 21 days.  The estimated period is between the period of November 2018 – December 26, 2018.

6 PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

The assignment will be conducted from November 26, 2018 to December 26, 2018.

7 LOCATION OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The assignment will be conducted in Tunis at the General Directorate of Resources and equilibrium.

8 SUPERVISION AND REPORTING

The consultant will work and collaborate directly with a designated counterpart from the Ministry of Finance, who will direct the daily work program. The FIRST Tax Policy Deputy Team Lead will support the consultant as appropriate. The consultant will report to the FIRST Team Leader, to First Tax Policy Deputy Team Lead as well as the FIRST Tax Policy and Other Fiscal Reforms Team Leader.